AGP Executive Report

Aviation Dispute: Kenya’s aviation strike ended after return-to-work talks, but the underlying grievances are still on the table, with unions and regulators back in negotiations. Energy & Industry: East Africa is racing to build competing petroleum hubs as refineries and ports reshape who captures oil value, with Lamu and Tanga among key battlegrounds. Foreign Traders Crackdown: President William Ruto ordered foreigners running small businesses to close from next week, saying Kenya wants investors creating jobs—not hawkers. Mining & Jobs: Ruto ordered Tata Chemicals Magadi to leave, demanding a new investor take over Lake Magadi operations with conditions for local processing and employment in Kajiado. Education Funding: Government reopened the university and TVET funding application window to September 21 after many eligible first-timers missed the August 31 deadline. Child Safety Online: UNICEF estimates 20 million internet-using children across 21 countries faced online sexual abuse or exploitation in one year, with social media and gaming driving most cases. Port Efficiency: KRA and KPA rolled out digital cargo clearance upgrades at Mombasa, including pre-arrival processing and Smart Gates to cut truck delays. Food Security: Kenya is considering importing yellow maize as stocks tighten, while officials also plan feed support and possible temporary milk imports amid reduced supply. Capital Markets: The High Court temporarily froze Diageo’s EABL sale to Asahi pending regulatory and legal reviews. Ride-hailing Shake-up: Uber shut down in Nigeria and Uganda, citing business review pressures and rising costs, leaving drivers to transition.

Digital Infrastructure Investment: WIOCC Group secured $300m from AFC and Saudi Vision to expand Africa’s data centres, fibre and subsea connectivity for AI and digital public infrastructure. Aviation Costs: Kenya Airways says a three-day aviation strike cut it by over Sh905m in lost revenue and disruption costs, with 63 flight cancellations and 160+ delays. Trade & Informal Sector Crackdown: President Ruto ordered foreigners running small hawking and retail businesses to shut down from Sept 7, citing unfair competition, while a Local Content Bill is before Parliament. Tax/Customs Relief for Traders: Government lowered the consolidated cargo benchmark from Sh2.5m to Sh2m and removed advance cargo declaration to ease clearance costs. Insurance Growth: IRA reports 2025 premiums rose 16.5% to Sh466.6b and penetration hit 2.63%, the highest since 2016. El Nino Risk: UNICEF warns 162m children across eastern and southern Africa face worsening nutrition, health and learning shocks from 2026-27 El Nino. Counterfeit Alcohol Crackdown: NACADA seized 4,000+ counterfeit alcohol products in Kayole, Nairobi, arresting suspects. Uber Retreat: Uber exited Nigeria and Uganda after 12 years, leaving Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and South Africa. Education Skills Shift: TVET enrolment surged to 1.2m by May 2026 as youth chase practical skills and jobs.

Public Finance & Health: Kenya’s Sh13 trillion debt is squeezing healthcare funding, with experts warning that servicing costs swallow most budget space and threaten Universal Health Coverage. El Niño Preparedness: The Interior Ministry unveiled plans to map flood hotspots, clear drainage choke points, and prioritise evacuation and response across riverine, urban, arid and landslide-prone areas. Capital Markets & Deals: Kenya’s merger and acquisition value surged to $1.44bn in H1 2026, overtaking Nigeria as investor confidence and big-ticket banking transactions drive activity. Banking & Expansion: Nedbank won key approval to acquire a stake in Kenya’s NCBA, adding momentum to regional financial consolidation. Tax Relief: KRA formally opened Tax Amnesty 2026, offering structured payment plans for principal arrears with a Dec 31, 2026 deadline. Transport & Infrastructure: Kenya Railways has started land acquisition for Naivasha–Kisumu SGR Phase 2B, moving valuation and gazettement forward. Energy & Industry: Deputy President Kindiki says eight county aggregation and industrial parks will be operational before end-2026, with early value-add products like macadamia, tomato paste and cassava starch. Media & Security: Journalists protested in Meru after Standard Group associate editor Alex Kiprotich’s abduction; he was later found safe near Masinga Dam. Crime & Compliance: DCI arrested two directors over alleged theft of KSh 31.2m from a retail chain, while NACADA seized counterfeit alcohol in a Nairobi crackdown. Business & Society: Shoprite’s $62m deal to buy Vida e Caffè signals continued growth in Africa’s coffee QSR market, even as cyber cafés in Nairobi struggle under smartphone-driven demand shifts.

Aviation Labour Update: Kenya Aviation Workers’ Union called off its strike after talks with Kenya Airports Authority and the government, easing a two-day disruption at JKIA and other airports, though flight delays linger as airlines clear backlogs. Labour Rights Push: Hours after the aviation walkout ended, COTU renewed calls for “respect” to workers’ rights, urging industrial peace and full implementation of CBAs. Kenya Airways Leadership Shake-up: Kenya Airways acting CEO George Kamal resigned for personal reasons; Habil Waswani was appointed acting CEO effective September 15 as the board starts recruiting a substantive chair and top boss. Telecom Regulation: CAK proposed new rules on deactivating dormant SIMs, requiring telcos to contact owners and giving a longer revival period before deactivation, raising compliance costs but improving subscriber control. Banking & Insurance: Absa and Co-op led bancassurance earnings in H1 2026, while Safaricom started paying a record Sh46.08bn final dividend early ahead of the September 4 date. Public Finance & Pensions: The Public Service Superannuation Fund plans to diversify investments beyond heavy government debt exposure, aiming for higher long-term returns. Health & Development: Health CS Aden Duale welcomed a Sh129m sickle cell demonstration project to strengthen early diagnosis and care in three counties. Trade & Customs: Kenya published a full list of goods banned from import and export under EAC customs rules, including counterfeit currency, narcotics, mercury cosmetics and used tyres.

Aviation Disruption: Kenya’s aviation workers have called off a strike that paralysed JKIA and stranded thousands, after the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority said an agreement was reached to restart talks on a new CBA and address “non-victimisation” of employees. Healthcare Labour: Nurses say they will keep a nationwide strike going until the 2017 CBA is fully implemented, rejecting claims by governors that the deal is financially unsustainable. Public Finance & Tax: Kenya’s digital content creators are urging Treasury and KRA to pause the 5% withholding tax on YouTube monetisation ahead of Google’s rollout, arguing the tax collection approach needs meaningful sector engagement. Corruption Case: Former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria and others face amended fresh charges in a KSh351m corruption case tied to a county media-buying contract. Transport Safety: NTSA has summoned nine PSV operators over safety concerns, while Nicco Movers’ licence was suspended after most vehicles failed inspections. Flood Preparedness: Government announced seven measures to prepare for above-normal OND El Niño rains, including hotspot mapping, drainage desilting and evacuation planning. Business & Markets: CBK approved Nedbank’s 66% acquisition of NCBA, signalling consolidation in Kenya’s banking sector.

Cancer Care Deal: President Ruto says Kenya has struck a Pfizer accord with KEMSA that cuts prices of key cancer medicines by more than seven times, with some treatments dropping from about Sh1m to under Sh50,000 per cycle. Health Policy: The government is also finalising a National Traditional, Complementary and Integrative Medicine policy to bring practitioners into a regulated framework as UHC pushes ahead. Cost of Living: KNBS reports inflation rose for a second month to 6.6% in August, driven mainly by food/non-alcoholic beverages, transport and housing/fuels. Energy Security: Kenya imported 30,000 tonnes of jet fuel outside the main G-2-G deal to avert shortages at JKIA and Mombasa after supply concerns. Banking & Risk: Stanbic Bank ordered to refund Sh511,000 after court found weak digital onboarding verification enabled account hijacking. Digital Tax: Google joins Meta in withholding 5% of Kenyan creators’ earnings unless they submit KRA PINs by Oct 1. Invest Kenya Push: Kenya moves to digitise its one-stop investor centre to speed approvals and improve predictability for businesses. Aviation Disruption: Talks to end the aviation workers’ strike ran into the night, leaving passengers stranded and flights delayed/diverted. Sacco Shock: Kuscco members voted for voluntary liquidation after a forensic audit flagged major losses, threatening recovery of billions.

Aviation Disruption: Hundreds of passengers were stranded overnight at JKIA as an aviation workers’ strike entered a second day, with delays of 2–3 hours and cancellations disrupting tourism and cargo flows. Air Cargo & Fleet Strategy: Kenya Airways ended its Terra Avia capacity deal and is now weighing a long-term B777F lease to cut soaring fuel-cost pressure and boost its cargo share. Health Financing: Government released Sh396m to the Social Health Authority to extend health cover to 107,800 Community Health Promoters and their families. UHC Payroll Standoff: Health CS Aden Duale says delayed UHC staff salaries are on counties that have resisted integrating payroll systems, with Sh8.6bn tied to the transition. Digital Privacy & Work: A court case found an employer’s inspection of a workplace computer for legitimate business reasons didn’t violate privacy, though the employee still won on dismissal and harassment. AI Governance: Kenya’s “shadow AI” risk is growing as staff use AI tools without IT oversight, raising concerns for confidential data and bad decisions. Public Trust: A Trust Summit is set for Oct 21–23 as surveys show trust in key institutions remains low, threatening investment and cohesion. Debt & Ratings: S&P warns Kenya’s frequent refinancing could trigger a credit downgrade if external pressures and forex strain worsen. Water Sustainability: Analysts argue Kenya must treat water sustainability as a year-round management and maintenance issue, not a seasonal Vision 2030 talking point.

Green Energy Finance: SBM Bank Kenya sealed a $17m deal with Safer Power to expand local green energy manufacturing, backing factory construction and equipment production for clean power projects. Housing Delivery Watch: Ruto’s Affordable Housing Programme remains a flashpoint as questions persist on what has actually been delivered, funding mechanics and access to completed units. Transport & Infrastructure: China Road and Bridge Corporation is set to finish tarmacking the Rironi–Naivasha stretch by December, easing congestion on the Sh200bn corridor. Trade & Market Access: Kenya secured duty-free access to China for about 98.2% of tariff lines on eligible exports, boosting prospects for avocados, tea, coffee and cut flowers. Tax Enforcement: KRA’s bad-debt write-off rules and its agency notice power are putting businesses on alert over cashflow disruptions and audit risks. Food Security Crisis: Save the Children warns 3.6m Kenyans face acute hunger, with emergency-level cases rising in ASAL counties. Health Sector Labour: Healthcare interns threaten to strike from Aug 31 over delayed pay, raising the risk of more service disruption. Politics & IEBC: Kindiki and Murkomen urged politicians to stop interfering with IEBC ahead of 2027, as opposition rallies face rising tensions. Air Travel Disruption: Kenya Airways confirmed 2–3 hour delays at JKIA due to air traffic control challenges, stranding Kisumu-bound passengers. Co-op Sector: KUSCCO shareholders approved liquidation, citing efforts to safeguard remaining assets after years of losses and governance disputes.

Education Funding Pressure: KUPPET warns schools may send students home as capitation falls short by about KSh6,000 per learner in the final term, pushing costs onto parents. HELB Clarification: HELB says some students under the old model won’t get further disbursements after hitting a four-year funding limit, following protests over missing batch numbers. Police Procurement Clarity: The National Police Service denies Nalitex links to the new police uniform tender, saying Bedi Investments was lawfully awarded after sample evaluation under Buy Kenya Build Kenya. Power Reliability: Kenya Power cites faults on main lines after overnight outages hit parts of Nairobi, while imports from Ethiopia and Uganda rise to avert rationing. Digital Economy Tax: Google will withhold a 5% Kenyan tax from YouTube earnings for creators, starting with September 2026 payouts in October. Governance & Rights: Amnesty International challenges Ruto to act on enforced disappearance assurances, urging investigations and reparations. Media & Business: Nation Media Group appoints six new directors after Tanzanian billionaire Rostam Aziz’s board changes. Tourism Safety: Nairobi CBD tourists were escorted to safety after suspected follow-and-rob fears.

Customs Pressure on Trade: Nairobi small-scale traders shut shops and protested a 28% customs tax hike after KRA raised the minimum customs benchmark for consolidated cargo from KES 2.5m to KES 3.2m per 40-foot container, with police dispersing them using tear gas. Affordable Housing Politics: President William Ruto defended the Affordable Housing Programme, saying scrapping it would endanger over 1.1m jobs and challenged critics ahead of 2027. Labour Update: COTU Treasurer General Albert Njeru Obed died after a short illness, with COTU leadership praising his long service to workers. Digital Cooperation Expansion: Kenya is set to join the Digital Cooperation Organization as it approved eight countries’ candidatures, potentially expanding membership to 24. Road Works: KeNHA says the Rironi–Naivasha highway tarmacking is on track, targeting major pavement progress by December. Regional Food Security & Prices: Zambia’s maize surplus is easing mealie meal prices at home while Kenya seeks to buy 10.8m bags from Zambia. Health & Governance: Nairobi Hospital reconstituted its board and retained Dr Barcley Onyambu as chair after months of boardroom disputes.

Maize Supply Crunch: Kenya is set to buy 10.8 million bags of maize from Zambia to plug a domestic deficit after below-normal harvest prospects, with talks focused on final trade terms. Public Finance Pressure: Treasury has already hit 41% of its annual domestic borrowing target in just two months, cashing in on strong investor demand as it seeks early funding to manage the budget gap. Debt & Development Push: Kenya urged African states to negotiate as one bloc against costly debt, calling it a “trust tax” that drains billions from the continent. Infrastructure Disruption Watch: KeNHA has started planning utility relocations and roadside structure management for the Nanyuki–Doldol road upgrade, warning of possible disruptions for businesses and motorists. Fisheries Losses: Kenya is losing about Sh45bn annually to illegal, unregulated fishing, with calls for stronger enforcement and better information for local fishers. Agri Research: KALRO researchers are developing improved feeds and pasture systems to help cattle gain weight faster and fetch better market prices. Business & Trade Links: PIL has enhanced its Imara Express (IMX) India–East Africa shipping service with two dedicated loops connecting Mombasa and Dar es Salaam. Governance & Health: Nairobi Hospital’s boardroom dispute has ended with Dr Barcley Onyambu retained as chairman after a reconstituted board was announced. Tax & Digital Creators: YouTube creators face a new 5% withholding tax on earnings paid via AdSense, starting with September 2026 payouts. Airline Wins: Kenya Airways was named Africa’s Leading Airline 2026 and won four World Travel Awards titles in Zanzibar. Sports Media Deal: DAZN secured rights to broadcast LaLiga EA SPORTS across Sub-Saharan Africa for three seasons. Corporate Crime: A company director was charged with allegedly stealing Sh2.1m, with bail set at Sh1m while the case proceeds.

Police Uniform Probe: Questions are swirling around Nalitex Limited, the firm linked to Kenya’s new police uniforms, after its Nairobi office couldn’t be traced and its address overlaps with an auditing firm and a property business tied to President William Ruto’s family. Trade & Tax Pressure: Nairobi small-scale traders and importers shut shops and protested after KRA raised the minimum customs valuation benchmark for consolidated cargo, with police firing tear gas as businesses warn the higher costs will squeeze margins. Oil Storage Deal: Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) has signed a 25-year crude oil storage and handling contract with Gulf Energy E&P BV projected to bring up to Sh93.68b in gross revenue, a boost for long-delayed oil ambitions. Insurance Earnings: Britam Holdings reported a 52% jump in half-year profit before tax to Sh3.8b, with net profit rising 53% to Sh2.66b as underwriting improved. Security Modernisation: The US launched a $7m (Sh930m) initiative to modernise and professionalise Kenya’s police training at Kiganjo. Business Regulation: ODPC has given businesses 14 days to renew expired certificates or face penalties. Health & Public Interest: A new push targets HIV prevention around Lake Victoria, focusing on widows and single mothers with boats and fish storage to reduce exploitation risks.

Customs & Trader Protests: Nairobi CBD traders shut shops and marched after KRA raised the minimum customs benchmark for consolidated cargo to KSh 3.2m from KSh 2.5m, with police firing tear gas as businesses protested the higher import costs and squeezed margins. KRA Clarification: KRA says the benchmark is a risk-management reference, not a fixed tax bill for every container, and reiterates that consolidation still helps small-scale importers pool shipments and clear faster. Digital Business Costs: Meta says WhatsApp Business service messages will be charged from Oct 1, 2026, and businesses without a payment method on file by Sept 30 could see service messages stopped—raising operating costs for SMEs that rely on WhatsApp for orders and support. Green Finance Deal: SBM Bank Kenya and Safer Power ink a USD 17m financing partnership to boost local green energy manufacturing of power infrastructure components. Health Tech Launch: AfyaApp rolls out to connect Kenyans to healthcare information and services through a locally built digital platform. Trade Policy Certainty: Kenya welcomes a proposed AGOA extension to Dec 31, 2028, promising continued duty-free access for key exports like tea, coffee, cut flowers and macadamia nuts. Police Pay & Reform: President Ruto completes a three-phase police salary review, lifting entry-level pay by about 36% and outlining uniform and service reforms. Organ Trade Bill: Kenya moves to ban commercial trade in human organs with proposed penalties up to Sh50m and 25 years in jail.

TVET Push: Kenya is upgrading TVET to produce job-ready graduates for local and global labour markets, highlighted by the first cohort final assessments under Australia’s Signet Institute programme at Kabete National Polytechnic. Public Finance & Labour: Unions warn of a strike over delayed county salaries, saying devolved units are turning the problem into a systemic one. Counterfeit Alcohol Crackdown: NACADA, KRA and KEBS raided Jericho and arrested three suspects after seizing 315 counterfeit drinks, including products linked to Tanzanian excise stamps. Election Tech Row: IEBC dismissed Rigathi Gachagua’s 2027 election technology allegations as false and unsubstantiated, challenging him to provide documents for investigation. Aviation Governance: Kenya Airports Authority has transitioned to Kenya Airports Authority PLC as part of State-Owned Enterprise reforms. Digital Commerce Costs: Meta will start charging Kenyan businesses for WhatsApp “utility” messages from Oct 1, raising operating costs for customer service. Energy & Climate: Kenya’s El Niño risk is rising, with new research pointing to stronger past events and potentially more extreme future impacts.

Credit Ratings Push: The AU-backed African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) will launch a continent-wide credit ratings agency in Mauritius on October 5, aiming to cut borrowing costs and focus on local-currency debt. Constitution & Anti-Corruption: As Kenya marks Katiba Day at 16, commentary highlights how the 2010 Constitution reshaped the anti-corruption fight, while gaps in enforcement and independence still linger. Banking & Courts: Bank of Baroda directors face possible civil jail over alleged contempt in the Infinity Industrial Park dispute, as the court moves to address alleged disobedience of orders. Road Safety: Kenya Red Cross wants urban speed limits cut from 50km/h to 30km/h in high-risk areas to reduce crashes involving pedestrians and cyclists. Agriculture Payments: Sugarcane farmers are set for faster payouts—millers must pay within seven days or face penalties—while KSB also targets weighbridge malpractices. Coffee Market: Nairobi Coffee Exchange auction fetched Sh896m from 15,906 bags, with top-quality lots selling up to about $461 per 50kg. Digital Economy: NTSA says vehicle ownership transfer can be done fully online via eCitizen, including fees. Livestock Theft Fight: Government plans nationwide digital IDs for cows, goats and sheep under ANITRAC to improve traceability and curb theft. Weather Watch: Experts warn of a dry spell in parts of the Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza, while rainfall is expected to increase along the Coast.

Kenya Airways Turnaround Watch: Kenya Airways posted strong H1 operating metrics—2.2m passengers and a 76.3% load factor—plus an 18% cargo revenue jump, but losses widened to Sh16bn as jet fuel volatility and aircraft/engine delays hit capacity; the airline is now pushing MRO expansion and cargo growth to lift regional share. Power Crunch Risk: Kenya’s electricity reserve margin has fallen to 3.3%, raising the odds of rationing/blackouts and forcing higher reliance on costly diesel backup. Agribusiness & Exports: Kakuzi’s net profit plunged 97.6% as Middle East war disrupted shipping to Europe and demand softened; the firm also flagged weak macadamia conditions. Policy & Health: Kenya will block pesticides banned abroad, with border enforcement stepped up after a reported 95% drop in illicit imports. Finance for Workers: Co-op Bank says it disbursed Sh41bn via its salary-linked e-flexi platform in Jan–Jul 2026, showing rising demand for short-term payslip-backed credit. Election Peace Push: NCIC and faith leaders backed a joint plan to curb hate speech, misinformation and political violence ahead of 2027. Sports & Business: NPFL ended its title-sponsor drought with a $7.5m EuroMatch deal, signaling renewed commercial momentum for league football.